For those of you who have been keeping up with my regular posts, thanks for stopping in. I will be taking a break from my reporting on Kenya and shall return in a month’s time. To view the multimedia slideshow I put together about the Kenyan crisis, click here.

Nairobi, Nakuru, Naivasha, Nyieri and Eldoret were all affected by yesterday’s Mungiki demonstrations. A day after President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga named the cabinet, one would have expected Kenya to be celebrating. Instead, the capital city was completely paralyzed by road blocks set up by the Mungiki at key strategic points around town. Early in the morning they pulled up a section of the railway line in the Nairobi slum of Dandora, which caused a train to completely derail. Running gun battles went on through the morning between Mungiki and police in Dandora, dubbed the Mungiki capital city.

The surprise attacks seem to be a Mungiki trademark, and police had little explanation for why they were caught so off guard. But I found it hard to believe, since last week I was already receiving information that the Mungiki were planning attacks on the State in retaliation for the big crack down on sect members in the last few weeks. Then at the weekend, the imprisoned sect leader, Maina Njenga’s wife was found murdered, beheaded, apparently with a saw. Retaliation was sure to come, and it doesn’t place much confidence in the police force when you consider that Nairobi was paralyzed for two hours yesterday morning before they got their act together.

Last month several hundred Mungiki members descended on downtown Nairobi demanding the release of their leader, Maina Njenga. It was difficult to understand how for more than two months, gatherings of more than a few people in town were disbanded by police immediately, and yet, the country’s most feared gang members managed to invade the capital city en masse and unchecked. It certainly makes one wonder if there aren’t Mungiki sympathizers high up in the ranks of government and security.

The Mungiki sect is actually quite anti-Kibaki. Mungiki is strictly a Kikuyu sect and they expected Kibaki, also a Kikuyu, to allow them freedom to carry out their business. But in 2006 the president declared the sect illegal and began rooting them out in brutal campaigns where thousands are said to have disappeared or died. There is a lot of evidence to suggest that many Mungiki did not vote for Kibaki in the contentious December 2007 elections. But in the second wave of violence that rocked western Kenya in January and February, there is undeniable evidence that Mungiki were hired by the State to carry out attacks on rivaling tribes.

Indeed, I heard the same eye-witness accounts across the country, that first police would move in, and just behind them gangs of Mungiki would follow, armed with machetes. Some accounts even told of Mungiki being given police uniforms and guns. I spoke with a GSU officer in Mathare North in January, who wished to remain anonymous, but indicated to me the very police station where Mungiki came to get their uniforms in the night. But after the power-sharing deal was signed in February, the State immediately embarked on a series of impressive raids of Mungiki strongholds, arresting, beating and harassing scores of suspected members. It appears that the recent Mungiki uprisings are in protest of these raids, and already last week, we were hearing ruminations about possible retaliatory acts.

The Mungiki sect is a mixture of three groups: the religious movement, the political movement, and the criminal arm. It is unknown how many Mungiki members exist in Kenya today, as their practices remain largely shrouded in secrecy, but estimates range from one to two million. The group first came into prominence in the 1980’s and sprang from the Mau Mau who fought for Independence from British rule. They pushed for a return to traditional values and refused western practices. The sect has since undergone a metamorphosis and turned into the most feared gang in Kenya. They have accrued considerable wealth by extorting taxes from public minibus companies and slum residents, in exchange for security the official police forces should, but do not provide. While the machete is the traditional weapon of choice for Mungiki, more recently, they have introduced guns within the highly trained criminal ranks of the sect, and police are yet more apprehensive to deal with them now.

A young man hacks at bolts holding the railway line together in Kibera slums. © Anne Holmes

Residents of Nairobi’s Kibera slum continued to pull up the railway line late into the evening and all morning until an agreement was struck with police. Community leaders came into the slum to discuss an end to the operation, and later this afternoon opposition leader Raila Odinga asked people to be patient as he and the president came to an agreement over the cabinet.

Yesterday evening as people came home from work, an eyewitness said several thousand people gathered to join in the destruction of the train tracks. This morning, residents continued to demolish them with the aim of throwing the entire track into the river a hundred meters below. This is the second time Kibera residents uproot the line. In January they removed 2 kilometers of this route, which leads to Uganda, to decry the use of Ugandan troops in the bloody repression of opposition protesters.

Many present at the scene today explained that they were doing this in protest against President Mwai Kibaki for having promised them 500,000 jobs which he did not deliver in his first term. Unfortunately for those who do have jobs, the destruction of the train tracks has made their lives more difficult as they used this route to get to work in town. Now with major congestion problems and local buses barred from downtown, commuters will spend more time getting to and from work, and further congest traffic.

The protestors and opposition party, ODM, may have made their point clear, however, as the two leaders seem to be making moves to select a cabinet by Saturday of this week, according to press conference statements today.

A boy sits on the railway line which residents of Nairobi’s Kibera slums tore up in protest of stalled negotiations © Anne Holmes

Stalled negotiations over the naming of cabinet ministers by Prime Minister Designate Raila Odinga and President Mwai Kibaki under the power-sharing deal struck in late February of this year, has given rise to renewed fears the violences may return. A failure to implement the accord could have dire consequences for the country. Pressure is coming from the populace loud and clear for the two to settle the matter quickly, but Kibaki’s ministers said their party was ready for a reelection if the opposition wanted to go for a rerun, a sign the former are not interested in negotiating the cabinet. Sources tell me the military arrived in Molo already three days ago, another sign the state might not be willing to negotiate with opposition ODM’s demands. It also suggests word got out that the opposition is preparing its people on the ground for mass action. Protests in Nairobi’s Kibera slums and Kisumu town yesterday, and minor skirmishes with police were the first signs that Kenya might be heading towards a reprisal of the bloody clashes that erupted across the west after the contested election in December last year between Kibaki and Odinga saw the country divide along tribal lines.

The two leaders kept silent today, and most of the country was quiet apart from Kibera slums, where youths ripped up yet more railway line running from the coastal town of Mombasa to Uganda, an operation aimed at cutting trade routes and thus, further crippling the economy.

A definite beefed up security presence was felt all around Nairobi today, and tensions are running high. Kofi Annan, who was the chief mediator for the talks which led to the power sharing deal, sent a message to Kibaki and Odinga yesterday on his birthday which read “Give me a nice birthday present. Agree on a cabinet,” but made no mention of returning should a neutral party be required. Kenyan lawyers criticised the power-sharing deal, saying it had been poorly written and did not envisage a way to navigate a worst-case scenario such as the current stalemate. If either party pulls out of the coalition, the deal is null and void, which would most likely result in more bloodshed.

While over a hundred thousand internally displaced people continue to languish in camps across western Kenya and Uganda as a result of the clashes earlier this year, and food shortages loom ahead, many feel that now is not the time for political grandstanding and threats of more violence. The international community has put a great deal of pressure on the two parties to make the necessary concessions and move forward, but there is no sign of a compromise in sight.

Before Kofi Annan enters the history books with merits on a job well done in Kenya, before you buy into the propaganda of American goodwill in this story, it would be worth it to examine the quick turn of events that led to the February 28 power sharing agreement.

President Mwai Kibaki and opposition leader Raila Odinga publicly signed the deal one bright afternoon, to international acclaim. African heads of state got up before the cameras and talked about their “friends” in America and their “friends” in Europe. The mainstream media painted the US as an agent of peace, with Condoleeza Rice and Kofi Annan forging a deal to end two months of post-election violence, effectively bringing two sworn enemies together to rule one country.

But America’s foreign policy is habitually sugarcoated in the mainstream media. Reading between the lines usually gives a different, more accurate picture.

No one knew which way Kenya would turn last month. The country was on the brink of civil war, more than 350,000 people had fled their homes, and upwards of 1,500 had died. The opposition was threatening more civil disobedience, the state was refusing to budge in negotiations, and Kofi Annan was at his wit’s end. No one had ever witnessed such conflict in the history of Kenya since its independence.

Then came a thinly veiled threat from the United States on February 26 that suddenly made everyone stand up straight and behave. Chief Mediator Kofi Annan suspended the talks later that day, forced Kibaki and Odinga into a room alone to deal with the issues head on for the first time. He emerged miraculously 2 days later with an agreement ready to be inked by both parties. All means of speculation could never reveal what really was discussed in that room, but some pieces of the puzzle are in plain view.

Although Condoleezza Rice did not specify what she meant when she said that the US was “exploring a wide range of possible actions,” the effects were felt immediately. “We will draw our own conclusions about who is responsible for lack of progress and take necessary steps,” she continued. This was in no uncertain terms a threat, but was it hollow, or can we already hear the reverberations of its sincerity? Continue reading ‘US Foreign Policy and the Kenya Peace Deal’